Trump’s chance of winning the presidency soars as Biden debate fallout continues


Former President Trump‘s odds of returning to the White House are on an upward trajectory, and President Biden’s chances of re-election are in free fall as the Democratic Party’s presumed nominee faces mounting scrutiny over his ability to serve as commander in chief for another term.

As of Monday, The Economist’s prediction model showed Trump had a roughly 3-in-4 (74%) chance of winning the electoral college in 2024, while Biden had a 1-in-4 (26%) chance.

trump dancing on stage at a rally

Former President Trump is shown during his campaign rally in the South Bronx, New York City, on May 23, 2024. (James Devaney/GC Images/Getty Images)

The model predicts Trump will rack up 310 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win, compared to an expected 228 for Biden. When the two candidates first squared off in 2020, Biden won the presidency with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.

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While Trump’s chances have seen a boost of three points and Biden’s dropped by the same amount since Biden’s disastrous performance at the debate between the two candidates on June 27, Trump has held a commanding lead in the forecast for months. But the model shows that in early June, Trump’s odds began to climb steadily while Biden’s plummeted.

Joe Biden Donald Trump presidential debate

President Biden and former President Trump are shown during their debate at CNN’s studios in Atlanta on June 27, 2024. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Trump is blowing Biden away in the betting markets, too, as the Democrat faces growing calls from within his own party to bow out of the race and allow another candidate to step in.

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Prediction market Polymarket’s 2024 presidential election forecast on Tuesday showed that Trump holds a 63% chance of winning the race, while Biden’s odds are at 19%. On the day of the debate, traders on the platform bet Biden’s odds of winning the election at 33%.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump and Joe Biden (Fox News)

Meanwhile, recent polling shows Trump pulling further ahead of Biden post-debate.

A Wall Street Journal poll conducted from June 29 through July 2 found Trump would beat Biden 48% to 42% in a two-person matchup, the widest lead out of Journal surveys since late 2021 and up from a two-point lead in February.

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In the survey of 1,500 registered voters, 80% said Biden was too old to run for a second term, including 76% of Democrats. 

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